News : Baseball vs. The Electoral College

Editor's Note: Now that the 2018 MLB baseball season has begun, we decided to share some thoughts about life, from a baseball point of view. Today, we discuss The Electoral College. Vinton area native Bing Miller and his Philadelphia Athletics teammates outscored the St. Louis Cardinals in 1931 World Series by a combined seven-game score of 22-19. They had more RBI than the Cardinals, and more walks. And yet, the Cardinals won that World Series trophy in seven games, defeating the A's 4-2, on Oct. 10. Then, 56 years later, the Cardinals, while playing the very first World Series indoors, found themselves tied with the Minnesota Twins, at three games each. Although each team had won three games, the Twins had outscored the Cardinals, 34-24 over those first six contests. The Twins did win Game 7, becoming the first team to win a World Series game played inside, in the old Hubert H. Humphrey Metrodome. In sports that have a seven-game series to determine a season's champion, it does not matter, of course, if a team wins by a lop-sided margin, or by one point, run or goal in a game that is tied at the end of the normal scoring period. A win is a win, and with four wins, your team becomes the champ. In 1931, in the bottom of the very last inning, Bing Miller had just scored, and the tying run was at the plate. A fly ball lifted off the bat and headed to center field, where a Cardinal outfielder caught it, sealing the World Series Championship. It was that close. But the team that scored the most runs still lost. Not unlike the 2016 election. By the last count compiled by the New York Times, Hillary Clinton received 65,853,625 votes, to Donald Trump's 62,985,106. That represents a difference of nearly three million votes and a 2 percentage points. Trump, however,won 30 of the 50 states, and had a 306-232 edge in Electoral College votes. That victory has inspired many to join a national movement to replace the electoral system with the popular vote. The people of National Popular Vote, Inc. (NPV) say they have an easy fix that ensures that in future presidential elections, the person who gets the most votes will become President (unlike 2000 and 2016). They say that do to this, all it takes is for the legislatures of enough states representing 270 electoral votes to pass a resolution that declares that when the 270 threshold is met, that state legislature will direct all of the members of its electoral college to vote for the person who has the highest vote total, regardless of which candidate won in that particular state. A fact sheet from NPV says: "The bill has been enacted into law in 11 states possessing 165 electoral votes, including small states (RI, VT, HI, DC), medium-sized states (MD, MA, WA), and large states (NJ, IL, NY, CA). The bill will take effect when enacted by states with 105 more electoral votes. The bill has passed at least one chamberin 12 additional states with 96 electoral votes, including recent approvals by the New Mexico Senate, Oregon House, Arizona House, Oklahoma Senate, and unanimous committee votes in Georgia and Missouri." The NPV legal experts have a long explanation about how this would and could work (see that HERE), but they are overlooking something very important. Section 10 of Article 1 of the U.S. Constitution says that "NoState shall, without the Consent of Congress, lay any duty of Tonnage, keep Troops, or Ships of War in time of Peace, enter into any Agreement or Compact with another State..." You don't need to be a constitutional lawyer to know that a compact changing the way America votes, and the way the electoral college votes are tallied will almost certainly face a legal challenge, and almost certainly lose, under a review under that section. While some small compacts between states that do not affect the nation as a whole have been allowed, any agreement that affects the federal government or how Congress counts the electoral votes will almost certainly be declared unconstitutional, according to many legal experts. See one such argument HERE. Here's another similarity that baseball shares with elections: Just as in baseball, every field is slightly different. Some are inside; some outside; a few can be either, depending whether they open or close the roof. Also, the distance for a fly ball to be a home run is different in each of the 30 stadiums. The foul territory also varies, as well as the design and height of the outfield fence. All of these factors influence the final score. Likewise, in presidential elections, the rules can vary from state to state. In 2000, for example, Ralph Nader was on the ballot as the Green Party candidate in 43 states, including New Hampshire. Bush defeated Gore by about 7,000 votes, but more than 22,000 people (almost all of whom would have voted for Gore if Nader had not been on the ballot) voted for Nader. If NH rules had kept Nader off the ballot in that tiny state, Gore would have won the 2000 election, even without Florida. Likewise, it's very likely that the presence of Jill Stein (Green Party) and Gary Johnson (Libertarian) on most states' ballots in 2016 made the difference in the states where Trump very narrowly won. For many people, the argument about the electoral college depends on whether their candidate won (or whether or not they think their candidate would win during the next election). For example, two politicians who have expressed support for the National Popular Vote are former Labor Secretary Robert Reisch and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, who endorsed the NPV in a 2014letter. But like baseball fans reacting to a call by the ump, both Secretary Reisch and Speaker Gingrich are motivated by whether or not the change would help their candidate win. Regardless of your view on the popular vote movement, or mine, it's almost certain that the electoral college system will remain in place in 2020 and beyond. It's also almost certain that some candidates will make this an issue when they come to Iowa for the 2020 Caucus season. And yes, the Iowa Caucuses are another example of how the rules of choosing our President vary from state to state.